FiberStore news, with the rapid global deployment of FTTH, PON global market scale is constantly expanding, but the current PON market growth is beginning to slow down. In the recent “2013 China Optical Network Seminar”, Ovum principal analyst Julie Kunstler, said in an interview, during 2011-2012, the global GPON / EPON OLT has begun to decline in shipments, the total revenue of PON equipment market is also declined.
However, although the growth of entire PON market started to slow down or even a decline, but 10G PON market has begun to be favored. Julie Kunstler said that, although it is not completely sure which sort of next generation PON technology will become the mainstream in the future, but in Ovum’s expectations, the shipments of 10G EPON OLT will maintain a growth trend.
As for the Chinese broadband access market, Julie Kunstler believes that, due to the different wiring conditions of each region and each district, the future Chinese FTTx market penetration is expected to reach 40% -50%, the future will be a variety of access technologies co-exist, including PON, ADSL, VDSL, etc.
Julie Kunstler pointed out that, 2012 was the first year GPON OLT shipments beyond that of EPON, but the OLT total market has already begun to decline. Data show that, in the first quarter of 2013, EPON OLT shipments decreased 7%, compared to the same period down 46%; GPON OLT shipments decreased by 9%, an increase of 28%. In revenues, in the first quarter of 2013, EPON revenue decreased 25%, down 46%; GPON revenues decreased 29 percent, an increase of 3%.
Ovum predicts that, in the next few years, global GPON / EPON OLT shipments will further decline, it will be expected to from 41 million in 2012 decline to 13 million in 2018. At the same time, in 2012 GPON / EPON ONT / ONU’s shipments increased 43 percent compared to 2011, 2012 EPON ONT / ONU shipments still ahead of GPON ONT / ONU shipments, in 2013 GPON ONT/ONU shipments will just run after EPON.
Although entire PON market growth started to slow down or even a decline, but 10G PON market has begun to rise. Julie Kunstler said that, although what sort of future generation PON technology will become the mainstream is still not completely sure, but in Ovum’s expectations shipments of 10G EPON OLT will maintain a growth trend, and its application scenarios will be mainly reflected in FTTB, mobile backhaul, etc. Ovum forecasts, 10G EPON OLT’s shipments will maintain growth trend in 2018 will reach 500 thousand, 10G GPON OLT’s shipments will still be relatively small.